An Agent Based Simulation of Smart Metering Technology Adoption

Based on the classic behavioural theory “the Theory of Planned Behaviour”, we develop an agent-based model to simulate the diffusion of smart metering technology in the electricity market. We simulate the emergent adoption of smart metering technology under different management strategies and economic regulations. Our research results show that in terms of boosting the take-off of smart meters in the electricity market, choosing the initial users on a random and geographically dispersed basis and encouraging meter competition between energy suppliers can be two very effective strategies. We also observe an “S-curve” diffusion of smart metering technology and a “lock-in” effect in the model. The research results provide us with insights as to effective policies and strategies for the roll-out of smart metering technology in the electricity market

Identifying the Host Galaxy of Gravitational Wave Signals

One of the goals of the current LIGO-GEO-Virgo science run is to identify transient gravitational wave (GW) signals in near real time to allow follow-up electromagnetic (EM) observations. An EM counterpart could increase the confidence of the GW detection and provide insight into the nature of the source. Current GW-EM campaigns target potential host galaxies based on overlap with the GW sky error box. We propose a new statistic to identify the most likely host galaxy, ranking galaxies based on their position, distance, and luminosity. We test our statistic with Monte Carlo simulations of GWs produced by coalescing binaries of neutron stars (NS) and black holes (BH), one of the most promising sources for ground-based GW detectors. Considering signals accessible to current detectors, we find that when imaging a single galaxy, our statistic correctly identifies the true host ~20% to ~50% of the time, depending on the masses of the binary components. With five narrow-field images the probability of imaging the true host increases to ~50% to ~80%. When collectively imaging groups of galaxies using large field-of-view telescopes, the probability improves to ~30% to ~60% for a single image and to ~70% to ~90% for five images. For the advanced generation of detectors (c. 2015+), and considering binaries within 100 Mpc (the reach of the galaxy catalogue used), the probability is ~40% for one narrow-field image, ~75% for five narrow-field images, ~65% for one wide-field image, and ~95% for five wide-field images, irrespective of binary type.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figure

Nuclear Energy in the UK: Safety Culture and Industrial Organisation

In this paper we seek to explore the relationship between professionalism and nuclear safety in the UK. We consider the history of civil nuclear energy in Britain and the near complete shift in emphasis from state owned enterprises to the private sector. We show how in recent years government has acknowledged that a truly liberalised electricity industry is unable to deliver the construction of new nuclear power stations as part of a future low carbon electricity system. Throughout, however, the intention has been for policy merely to incentivise the private sector rather than to steer industry strategy directly. Having said that, the line between strong incentives and weak control can be hard to see. We present illustrative examples, real and fictional, that give insight into the UK nuclear safety culture and we discuss the wider nature of UK society with respect to corruption. We conclude that the unique basis of safety regulation in the UK, essentially permissive rather than prescriptive, has a key role to play in promoting and maintaining nuclear professionalism

The global nuclear liability regime post Fukushima Daiichi

Nuclear liability regimes are important as they ensure that potential victims will be compensated promptly and efficiently after a nuclear accident. The accident at Fukushima Daiichi in Japan in 2011 prompted a review of the global nuclear liability regime that remains on-going. Progress has been slow, but over the next few years the European Union is set to announce its new proposals. Meanwhile, in 2015, another global nuclear liability regime, the Convention on Supplementary Compensation for Nuclear Damage, has entered into force. This paper aims to move the debate in the literature on nuclear liability and focuses on the four following major issues: (1) reviews third-party nuclear liability regimes currently in operation around the world; (2) analyses the international nuclear liability regime following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi; (3) comparatively assesses the liability regimes for nuclear energy and the non-nuclear energy sector; and (4) presents the future outlook for possible developments in the global nuclear liability regime

New Electricity Technologies for a Sustainable Future

There is a growing concern over our reliance on conventional electricity sources and their long-term environmental, climate change, and security of supply implications, and much hope is vested in the ability of future technological progress to tackle these issues. However, informed academic analysis and policy debates on the future of electricity systems must be based on the current state, and prospects of, technological options. This paper is the introductory chapter in the forthcoming book Future Electricity Technologies and Systems. The book comprises contributions from leading experts in their respective technology areas. The chapters present state of the art and likely progress paths of conventional and new electricity generation, networks, storage, and end-use technologies. In this paper we review the growth trend in electricity demand and carbon emissions. We then present a concise overview of the chapters. Finally, we discuss the main contextual factors that influence long-term technological progress

Generation Adequacy and Investment Incentives in Britain: from the Pool to NETA

Three years after the controversial change of the British market design from compulsory Pool with capacity payments to decentralised energy-only New Electricity Trading Arrangements (NETA) market framework, we compare the two designs in terms of investment incentives. We review the biases of the Pool capacity payments design, the drought of investment following the introduction of NETA, and the reaction of the market during the first “stress-test” of NETA during the winter 2003. In an energy-only market such as NETA, it is essential that price signals are right and the system operator has a crucial role in contracting ahead for reserve. We recommend that NETA adopt a single marginal imbalance price as dual imbalance pricing distorts price signals in times of scarcity. The lack of long-term contracting that causes hedging and financing difficulties for power projects can becompensated by vertical and horizontal reintegration at a cost of increased market power

Weight-band dosing tables: simplifying paediatric art

One of the obstacles to scaling up paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage in resource-limited settings is the relative complexity of paediatric dosing. There is a need to simplify ART in order to facilitate treatment initiation and ongoing management of infants and children by health care providers, as well as to support adherence in the home. This article reviews the development of weight-band dosing tables as a strategy for simplifying the delivery of paediatric ART

A dynamic simulation of low-carbon policy influences on endogenous electricity demand in an isolated island system

This paper considers the dynamics of electricity demand in response to changes arising from low-carbon policies and socio-economic developments. As part of an investigation into the evolution of such systems on small economically-developed islands, endogenous electricity demand and associated policies are studied for the Azorean island of São Miguel. A comprehensive System Dynamics (SD) model covering the period 2005 − 2050 is presented which captures both historical behaviours and real-world influences on the endogenous demand dynamics of an island-based electricity system. The impact of tourism, energy efficiency and electric vehicles (EV) expansion allied with associated policy options, are critically evaluated by the SD model using a series of scenarios. The model shows that energy efficiency measures exhibit the most significant long-term impact on electricity demand, while in contrast, policies to increase tourism have a much less direct impact and EV expansion has thought-provoking impacts on the long-term demand, although this is not as influential as energy efficiency measures

Evidence that process simulations reduce anxiety in patients receiving dental treatment: randomized exploratory trial

Process simulations – mental simulations that ask people to imagine the process of completing a task – have been shown to decrease anxiety in students facing hypothetical or psychological threats in the short term. The aim of the present study was to see whether process simulations could reduce anxiety in a sample of the general population attending a dental practice, and whether these effects could be sustained throughout treatment. Participants (N = 75) were randomized to an experimental condition where they were asked to simulate mentally the process of seeing the dentist, or to a control condition where they were asked to simulate mentally the outcome of seeing the dentist. Findings showed that participants in the experimental condition were significantly less anxious both before and after their consultations. Self-efficacy and self-esteem remained unchanged. This study suggests that process simulation is one active ingredient in anxiety treatment programs and further research is required to enhance its effects